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26/11/2023

Lendo esta manhã

Acerca do novo presidente da Argentina, Javier Milei.


 





The win for Milei, a former television commentator who became famous for rants against economic mismanagement and corruption among Argentina’s governing elite, is a rebuke for Massa’s Peronist movement, which has dominated politics since the country returned to democracy in 1983.


Over the past two decades, left-leaning Peronist governments have doubled the size of the public sector and introduced expensive subsidies and tight regulation across the economy.


The Peronist model has faced unprecedented pressure this year amid spiralling inflation. Massa has resorted to money-printing to finance spending and tightened strict trade and exchange restrictions to protect scarce foreign currency reserves.


Milei’s critics had argued that he and his running mate — Victoria Villarruel, a longtime defender of Argentina’s 1976-83 dictatorship — poses a threat to democracy. Milei, who has no executive experience, also faces questions about his ability to realise his agenda, analysts said.


Ana Iparraguirre, an Argentine political analyst and partner at Washington-based strategy firm GBAO, noted that Milei won more votes than any candidate since 1983, albeit in a run-off election. “That result gives Milei a strong degree of legitimacy, but he has an enormous institutional weakness,” she said. “He will have to anchor his reforms in popular support.”


Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) coalition, founded in 2021, will hold just seven of 72 seats in Argentina’s senate and fewer than 40 of the 257 in the lower house. It has no governors in any of Argentina’s 23 provinces.


Recommended The Big Read The radical outsider promising to cure Argentina’s economic ills While Macri has said JxC will support LLA on “reasonable” reforms, other coalition leaders remain harsh critics of Milei, who in one of his first interviews on Monday said he intended to privatise as many state companies as possible, including oil group YPF.


Most economists in Argentina say Milei’s flagship plan to replace the peso with the US dollar is unworkable in the short term given that Argentina has almost no dollars in its central bank and no access to international credit.


The official exchange rate is fixed at just over 350 pesos to the dollar, but the black-market rate is at 900 pesos, creating widespread price distortions.


Fernando Marull, director of Buenos Aires-based economics consultancy FMyA, said Massa was likely to try to avoid an official devaluation before leaving office, while Milei’s win would put further pressure on the black-market exchange rate.


“But for sovereign bonds and stocks, Milei’s win will be positive, despite the questions about governability and his plans,” he said. “This puts an end to this idea that Argentina never changes — Argentina has just voted for a big change.”





Durante a campanha, o Presidente eleito havia recebido apoio de sete ex-chefes de Estado de países latino-americanos, assim como do prémio Nobel da Literatura Mario Vargas Llosa e do ex-chefe de Governo espanhol Mariano Rajoy, que se uniram contra a continuidade de “um modelo económico corporativo fracassado”.